Every programme we run starts by measuring what already happens without us, and holds back a group that keeps getting nothing. It makes the first quarter look slow. It is the only reason the second one means anything.
| Week | Signal |
|---|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 6 |
| 8 | 19 |
| 12 | 34 |
| 16 | 47 |
| 20 | 63 |
| 24 | 78 |
The order is the method. Run it backwards and you get a programme that cannot be evaluated, which is most of them.
We measure what happens without us — mentions, referrals, advocates you already have. You get this number whether or not we continue.
Tracking and the control group go in before anything launches. Deciding what counts after seeing results is how everyone ends up with a chart that means nothing.
The programme itself. This is the part most agencies start with, and it is the part that is worthless without the two before it.
A written read every fortnight, a full report monthly with the raw data attached, and a quarterly decision about whether to continue.
Six weeks before the first written read is not slowness. It is how long it takes to have something worth writing down.
| Phase | What happens | From | To |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | Measure what exists | Week 0 | Week 2 |
| Instrument | Tracking + control group | Week 2 | Week 4 |
| Recruit & equip | Build the roster | Week 3 | Week 8 |
| Run | Advocates publish | Week 6 | ongoing |
| Report | Fortnightly, then monthly | Week 4 | ongoing |
Any line goes up in a good quarter. What we report is the distance between the group that got the programme and the group that did not — because that is the only part we can honestly claim.
| Week | Programme | Held back | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100 | 100 | +0 |
| 4 | 103 | 101 | +2 |
| 8 | 111 | 104 | +7 |
| 12 | 124 | 103 | +21 |
| 16 | 133 | 107 | +26 |
| 20 | 151 | 109 | +42 |
| 24 | 168 | 112 | +56 |
| 26 | 179 | 114 | +65 |
You should never have to ask how it is going.
The raw data is yours throughout, not a deliverable at the end of the contract.
These cost us work occasionally, which is how we know they are load-bearing.
A program review is a 45-minute read of your current numbers. You leave with the three charts above, filled in with your data, whether or not we work together.